The Weekend Economist "Quaerere Verum"

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Tuesday, December 29, 2009

#86 Imagine the possibilities

Most people these days live in three worlds: The real one, outside the door; The virtual one, where you can engage in social networks with (as far as I can tell) real people; And The imaginary, where you and (if applicable) your imaginary friends reside.

Imagination is necessary to improve the real world we live in because our imagination can reflect a better, more desirable situation that we want. Expectations of future occurrences are shaped by our interpretation of the real world by our imagination. However, the world we live in moves so fast and is so voluminous from an information angle that we have little time to absorb, reflect and imagine productively.

We are more and more faced with split second decisions, quick one-sided interpretations, and rewarded by swift action without time for reflection. After all, thinking on your feet and being decisive are just some of the alpha male characteristics that are deemed critical in leadership and execution. Yes, as a surgeon, trader or soldier, these gut feeling reactions are critical to survival; it's what makes us human and how we flourish or fail. There is also something heroic and charismatic about reacting to gut feeling and making split second reactions in the heat of battle.

It's true that when a bus is about to hit you, you make an instant reaction to jump out of the way with a shot of adrenaline giving you superhuman strength. In the end it feels like a rewarding experience because of the raging chemicals inside your body. I guess that is what attracts people to extreme sports and, well, extreme banking and investment management. It now has been proven that testorone plays an important role in risk taking and self confidence. Seems obvious.

My point is that with more reflection and imagination we can avoid getting in the way of a driving bus or not seeing the sheer cliff downwards in the stock market. Avoid the herd, and think for your self.

It is easier said than done. But for experiment's sake, if X is claimed, could the opposite be true, what would have to occur for X not to happen? In any case it reminds me of being in university when the professor challenged us to think and question critically the many maxims we take for granted. By thinking critically, we understood the nature of the phenomenon, rather then treating it as a fact by itself. Imagination here is key again. Because you have to look beyond the reality in your face, and look from more perspectives than the one you current have. That insight comes from imagination.

If we had more time for imagination, we would not have to hire the expensive strategy consultant to tell us the obvious. With imagination we could see more threats and opportunities on the horizon. We could use imagination to design better business processes, perhaps even better businesses.

College is the best time of our life because it is then that we can afford to use our imagination. How strange it is then that if we are to be life long learners, that there is so little time to imagine.

Imagine the possibilities.

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