Contrary to the last few G8 summits, one of the main subjects of the recent meeting between the world’s top leaders in Heiligendamm, Germany, was Climate Change. In fact, it was the only environmental issue handled during the summit. In the summary of the summit it is stated that the leaders recognised that global warming is largely the result of human activity and only by limiting CO2 emissions will it be possible to stop global warming, concluding that “it is absolutely essential that global warming be limited to 1.5 to 2.5°C.” This is certainly a strong statement and it implies that we (humanity) know exactly what needs to be done. But do we really know? Do we really understand why the climate is changing? Do we understand the consequences of the change? And do we understand the consequences of channelling large amounts of resources towards curbing CO2 emissions?
If one were to trust politics and the press, then these would be rhetorical questions. After all, according to them, everybody knows the facts, discussion is closed and it is now time to act! But things are never that simple. Sure, the fact that there is global warming is known and agreed upon. But this is the only statement that enjoys consensus. The reasons behind the warming and its consequences are far from agreed upon. Roughly speaking, there are two camps. One camp is a believer in the conclusions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that have been adopted by mainstream politics and states that global warming is man-made and, unless urgent action is taken to reduce the increase of CO2 in the air, the world is heading towards a horrible catastrophe. The other camp believes that science is still far from able to understand global warming and its likely effects. The warming could be nothing more than a normal phenomenon caused by the same natural forces that make climate to be volatile and has nothing - or at least insignificantly little - to do with the additional emission of CO2 by humans. Moreover, the effect of warming is not necessarily negative. The picture of the calamity that the mainstream camp is painting is not based on any facts. So, if this is the case, spending so many resources to fight CO2 emissions cannot be justified.
The discussion between the two camps has passed from a pure factual discussion to a stage of dogma. Those in the camp that opposes the official opinion of the IPCC are called deniers, having even been compared to Holocaust deniers (though they prefer the label sceptics). It is true that there are more scientists on the side of the official camp, but that on its own is not so strange, given that it is the mainstream opinion. However, there are sufficient scientists on the other side as well and enough facts exist in order not to dispose of the opinion of the sceptics. Both sides have very convincing arguments and special sites to spread the word and defend their faith while combating the opponents (If you are interested, here are two sites to start you on your quest:
mainstream - environment.newscientist.com/channel/earth/climate-change/dn11462 & deniers - www.friendsofscience.org/). And, as is appropriate for a faith, each has their followers that fight each other with, very often, quite offending words.
Based on the existing knowledge, it is very difficult to claim that there is a scientific consensus on this issue. Nevertheless, politics decided that it is worthwhile to follow the advice of IPCC and elevate the climate change issue to the top of the agenda. The real question is why? It is difficult to believe that suddenly all members of the G8 decided to save the world. Politics in the modern world has a short term horizon. What will happen 100 years from now is not usually a relevant factor in political decisions. It seems more reasonable that this fits other goals they may have.
One reason could be that combating climate change is a way in which the various ‘green’ parties and pressure groups could be pacified without the need for handling less convenient problems. But the main reason is probably the painful dependence of the G8 countries on oil. Pushing the industry to find other energy sources could ease this dependency and by forcing all countries to participate, none of them should be too severely handicapped. If the money is used appropriately, we could perhaps see a breakthrough in alternative energy generation; which would be a major milestone in human development. What it most probably will not achieve, however, is a slowing of the temperature increase in a significant manner.
- This article was written for and provided to the Weekend Economist by Tamara Fai
Showing posts with label Leadership. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Leadership. Show all posts
Thursday, June 7, 2007
#69 Climate Change as Political Dogma
Tuesday, March 6, 2007
#45 Eternal Leaders Part 2 - Mobutu
In this first analysis of a number of the 'eternal leaders,' the track record of former heavyweight Mobutu Sese Seko (former President of the Democratic Republic of the Congo; then known as the Republic of Zaire) will be analyzed. Mobutu might very well be one of history's most brutal and miserable dictators, bringing his country's economy to ruin and implementing a reign of fear.
Born Joseph-Désiré Mobutu on October 14, 1930, Mobutu Sese Seko - as he later became known - would grow up to brutally lead the Republic of Zaire for 32 years (1965-1997). Through his career in Journalism, Mobutu met future Prime Minister of Belgian Congo (as the nation was called at the time) Patrice Lumumba in Belgium in the late 1950s. The two got along well and, upon return to Belgian Congo, Mobutu was offered the position of colonel and chief of staff of the Congolese army, following the granting of independence on June 30, 1960. From this day forward, Mobutu's true character came to light. He first deceived his friend Lumumba within months of his appointment, siding with President Joseph Kasavubu and deposing of Lumumba in a coup d'état. Lumumba would later be captured by soldiers loyal to Mobutu, beaten in plain sight of television cameras on a number of occasions (including in Mobutu's villa), and was finally executed.
Not long after, on November 25, 1965, the army took over power and Mobutu's 32 year reign began. Opponents were taken out and a cult of personality ensued. His Popular Movement of the Revolution (MPR) Party became the only legal political party in 1967, all unions were put under government control and in 1970, legislative and presidential "elections" were held, where voting was compulsory and Mobutu was the sole candidate. He won with 99% of the popular votes. Having crushed an attempted coup in 1967, co-opted or murdered his opponents, Mobutu now had a solid grip on power.
This led to experimentation with far-reaching policies such as renaming the country the Republic of Zaire in October 1971, ordering citizens to drop their Christian names for African ones (he named himself Mobutu Sese Seko Nkuku Ngbendu Wa Za Banga - "The all-powerful warrior who, because of his endurance and inflexible will to win, will go from conquest to conquest, leaving fire in his wake" - in 1972), imprisoning priests for baptizing a Zairian child with a Christian name, banning Western attire and ties, and forcing men to wear an abacost (a lightweight short-sleeved suit, worn without a tie).
Economically, Mobutu was a disaster, and a highly corrupt one at that. In 1973 Mobutu decided to nationalize all economic assets owned by foreigners, leading to a catastrophic decline in national productivity and wealth. The major failure of this policy eventually led Mobutu to return farms and factories to their original owners in 1977, but it was too little too late. While the country suffered major economic woes, Mobutu allegedly had amassed a fortune estimated to amount to US$5 billion in 1984, according to Fortune magazine. He also owned and traveled in his fleet of Mercedes-Benz vehicles and numerous palaces, while infrastructure virtually collapsed and public service workers went months without being paid. Inflation was a direct result of his policies, which was only exacerbated by the equally prevalent kleptochratic environment and nepotism.
In terms of foreign policy, Mobutu proved to be a relatively reliable ally for the West (mainly the US) in the Cold War. Nevertheless, Communist leader of Romania, tyrant Nicolae Ceausescu, was a close friend of Mobutu's, while Zaire also enjoyed good relations with China. Western disgust of Mobutu became apparent after the end of the Cold War, however, when he was no longer needed, shunning him in a rather hypocritical fashion.
After superficially agreeing to end the ban on other political parties and appointing a transitional government that would lead to promised elections in 1990, Mobutu retained power for another seven years, when he was overthrown in the First Congo War by Laurent-Désiré Kabila in 1997. This was a direct result of his support for Rwandan Hutus in the Rwandan genocide in 1994, when Mobutu issued an order in November 1996 forcing Tutsis to leave Zaire on penalty of death. Kabila was supported by the Tutsi governments of Rwanda, Burundi and Uganda and got rid of the ailing Mobutu in a quick and effective manner. Mobutu died soon after in Morocco, where he lies buried in, ironically, a Christian cemetery.
Although having economically ruined a resource-rich nation, butchering thousands and embezzling billions of dollars, Mobutu can be credited for maintaining the peace in Zaire. In the 5 years of independence before his rule, almost one million Congolese had died in conflict. His hard hand ensured that high profile torturing and assassinations of dissidents instilled a fear of the military and government that would prevent any such recurrence of violence. No matter how you look at him, he certainly qualifies as an "eternal leader."
Please have a look at #43 Eternal Leaders Part 1 for the list of the world's longest serving leaders.
Born Joseph-Désiré Mobutu on October 14, 1930, Mobutu Sese Seko - as he later became known - would grow up to brutally lead the Republic of Zaire for 32 years (1965-1997). Through his career in Journalism, Mobutu met future Prime Minister of Belgian Congo (as the nation was called at the time) Patrice Lumumba in Belgium in the late 1950s. The two got along well and, upon return to Belgian Congo, Mobutu was offered the position of colonel and chief of staff of the Congolese army, following the granting of independence on June 30, 1960. From this day forward, Mobutu's true character came to light. He first deceived his friend Lumumba within months of his appointment, siding with President Joseph Kasavubu and deposing of Lumumba in a coup d'état. Lumumba would later be captured by soldiers loyal to Mobutu, beaten in plain sight of television cameras on a number of occasions (including in Mobutu's villa), and was finally executed.
Not long after, on November 25, 1965, the army took over power and Mobutu's 32 year reign began. Opponents were taken out and a cult of personality ensued. His Popular Movement of the Revolution (MPR) Party became the only legal political party in 1967, all unions were put under government control and in 1970, legislative and presidential "elections" were held, where voting was compulsory and Mobutu was the sole candidate. He won with 99% of the popular votes. Having crushed an attempted coup in 1967, co-opted or murdered his opponents, Mobutu now had a solid grip on power.
This led to experimentation with far-reaching policies such as renaming the country the Republic of Zaire in October 1971, ordering citizens to drop their Christian names for African ones (he named himself Mobutu Sese Seko Nkuku Ngbendu Wa Za Banga - "The all-powerful warrior who, because of his endurance and inflexible will to win, will go from conquest to conquest, leaving fire in his wake" - in 1972), imprisoning priests for baptizing a Zairian child with a Christian name, banning Western attire and ties, and forcing men to wear an abacost (a lightweight short-sleeved suit, worn without a tie).
Economically, Mobutu was a disaster, and a highly corrupt one at that. In 1973 Mobutu decided to nationalize all economic assets owned by foreigners, leading to a catastrophic decline in national productivity and wealth. The major failure of this policy eventually led Mobutu to return farms and factories to their original owners in 1977, but it was too little too late. While the country suffered major economic woes, Mobutu allegedly had amassed a fortune estimated to amount to US$5 billion in 1984, according to Fortune magazine. He also owned and traveled in his fleet of Mercedes-Benz vehicles and numerous palaces, while infrastructure virtually collapsed and public service workers went months without being paid. Inflation was a direct result of his policies, which was only exacerbated by the equally prevalent kleptochratic environment and nepotism.
In terms of foreign policy, Mobutu proved to be a relatively reliable ally for the West (mainly the US) in the Cold War. Nevertheless, Communist leader of Romania, tyrant Nicolae Ceausescu, was a close friend of Mobutu's, while Zaire also enjoyed good relations with China. Western disgust of Mobutu became apparent after the end of the Cold War, however, when he was no longer needed, shunning him in a rather hypocritical fashion.
After superficially agreeing to end the ban on other political parties and appointing a transitional government that would lead to promised elections in 1990, Mobutu retained power for another seven years, when he was overthrown in the First Congo War by Laurent-Désiré Kabila in 1997. This was a direct result of his support for Rwandan Hutus in the Rwandan genocide in 1994, when Mobutu issued an order in November 1996 forcing Tutsis to leave Zaire on penalty of death. Kabila was supported by the Tutsi governments of Rwanda, Burundi and Uganda and got rid of the ailing Mobutu in a quick and effective manner. Mobutu died soon after in Morocco, where he lies buried in, ironically, a Christian cemetery.
Although having economically ruined a resource-rich nation, butchering thousands and embezzling billions of dollars, Mobutu can be credited for maintaining the peace in Zaire. In the 5 years of independence before his rule, almost one million Congolese had died in conflict. His hard hand ensured that high profile torturing and assassinations of dissidents instilled a fear of the military and government that would prevent any such recurrence of violence. No matter how you look at him, he certainly qualifies as an "eternal leader."
Please have a look at #43 Eternal Leaders Part 1 for the list of the world's longest serving leaders.
Saturday, March 3, 2007
#43 Eternal Leaders Part 1
Countries who are used to proper functioning Democracies with limited re-electability enshrined in the law are used to seeing new faces as head of state. This does not apply to a significant number of countries in the world, however. In fact, having leaders in power for over 30 years in a row is not as uncommon as one might expect. This series will look at the performance of a number of these "eternal" leaders. Part 1 provides the list of the longest serving 25 heads of state currently still in office, while the subsequent parts will take a closer look at the results of their leadership.
The list excludes royalty and heads of state who have no real power, comprising mainly of leaders who are Prime Minister or President of their respective countries. For example, Malietoa Tanumafili II, who has been head of state of Samoa since January 1, 1962, is excluded from the list because his post is largely ceremonial (true power lies with the Prime Minister). Similarly, famous royals such as Queen Elizabeth II of the United Kingdom (1952-currently) and King Bhumibol Adulyadej of Thailand (1946-currently) are excluded from the list. Furthermore, only leaders of the 20th and 21st Century are taken into account.
Before presenting the list, it is also interesting to have a look at some of the longest ever serving heads of state. A number of these leaders will also be profiled in this leadership series.
President Kim Il Sung: 1945-1994, 49 years (North Korea)
Emperor Haile Selassie: 1930-1974, 44 years (Ethiopia)
King Hassan II: 1961-1999, 38 years (Morocco)
President Gnassingbe Eyadema: 1967-2005, 38 years (Togo)
General Secretary Enver Hoxha: 1948-1985, 37 years (Albania)
General Francisco Franco: 1939-1975, 36 years (Spain)
President Alfredo Stroessner: 1954-1989, 35 years (Paraguay)
President Mobutu Sese Seko: 1965-1997, 32 years (former Republic of Zaire)
Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew: 1959-1990, 31 years (Singapore)
Now it's time to look at the main list. Below are the top 25 longest serving world leaders currently still in power. The position in office is written first, followed by the name and date the leader in question took office. In brackets you will find the country where they reign freely.
0. President Fidel Castro: February 16, 1959 (Cuba)
1. Prime Minister Hassanal Bolkiah: October 5, 1967 (Brunei)
2. President El Hadj Omar Bongo Ondimba: April 14, 1967 (Gabon)
3. Colonel Muammar Gaddafi: September 1, 1969 (Libya)
4. Prime Minister Khalifa ibn Salman Al Khalifa: 1970 (Bahrain)
5. Prime Minister Qaboos ibn Sa'id Al 'Bu Sa'id: July 23, 1970 (Oman)
6. President Ali Abdallah Saleh: July 17, 1978 (Yemen)
7. President Muamoon Abdul Gayoom: November 11, 1978 (Maldives)
8. President Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo: August 3, 1979 (Equatorial Guinea)
9. President Jose Eduardo dos Santos: September 10, 1979 (Angola)
10. President Robert Mugabe: March 4, 1980 (Zimbabwe)
11. President Hosni Mubarak: October 14, 1981 (Egypt)
12. President Paul Biya: November 6, 1982 (Cameroon)
13. President Nursultan Nazarbayev: March 22, 1984 (Kazakhstan)
14. President Lansana Conte: April 3, 1984 (Guinea)
15. Prime Minister Samdech Hun Sen: 1985 (Cambodia)
16. President Yoweri Museveni: January 29, 1986 (Uganda)
17. King Mswati III: April 25, 1986 (Swaziland)
18. President Blaise Compaore: October 15, 1987 (Burkina Faso)
19. President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali: November 7, 1987 (Tunisia)
20. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei: June 4, 1989 (Iran)
21. President Omar Hassan Ahmad al-Bashir: June 30, 1989 (Sudan)
22. President Islam Karimov: March 24, 1990 (Uzbekistan)
23. President Idriss Deby: December 2, 1990 (Chad)
24. Prime MInister Meles Zenawi: May 28, 1991 (Ethiopia)
25. President Isaias Afewerki: May 29, 1991 (Eritrea)
Please have a look at #45 Eternal Leaders Part 2 - Mobutu for an analysis of the leadership of former Republic of Zaire President Mobutu Sese Seko
The list excludes royalty and heads of state who have no real power, comprising mainly of leaders who are Prime Minister or President of their respective countries. For example, Malietoa Tanumafili II, who has been head of state of Samoa since January 1, 1962, is excluded from the list because his post is largely ceremonial (true power lies with the Prime Minister). Similarly, famous royals such as Queen Elizabeth II of the United Kingdom (1952-currently) and King Bhumibol Adulyadej of Thailand (1946-currently) are excluded from the list. Furthermore, only leaders of the 20th and 21st Century are taken into account.
Before presenting the list, it is also interesting to have a look at some of the longest ever serving heads of state. A number of these leaders will also be profiled in this leadership series.
President Kim Il Sung: 1945-1994, 49 years (North Korea)
Emperor Haile Selassie: 1930-1974, 44 years (Ethiopia)
King Hassan II: 1961-1999, 38 years (Morocco)
President Gnassingbe Eyadema: 1967-2005, 38 years (Togo)
General Secretary Enver Hoxha: 1948-1985, 37 years (Albania)
General Francisco Franco: 1939-1975, 36 years (Spain)
President Alfredo Stroessner: 1954-1989, 35 years (Paraguay)
President Mobutu Sese Seko: 1965-1997, 32 years (former Republic of Zaire)
Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew: 1959-1990, 31 years (Singapore)
Now it's time to look at the main list. Below are the top 25 longest serving world leaders currently still in power. The position in office is written first, followed by the name and date the leader in question took office. In brackets you will find the country where they reign freely.
0. President Fidel Castro: February 16, 1959 (Cuba)
1. Prime Minister Hassanal Bolkiah: October 5, 1967 (Brunei)
2. President El Hadj Omar Bongo Ondimba: April 14, 1967 (Gabon)
3. Colonel Muammar Gaddafi: September 1, 1969 (Libya)
4. Prime Minister Khalifa ibn Salman Al Khalifa: 1970 (Bahrain)
5. Prime Minister Qaboos ibn Sa'id Al 'Bu Sa'id: July 23, 1970 (Oman)
6. President Ali Abdallah Saleh: July 17, 1978 (Yemen)
7. President Muamoon Abdul Gayoom: November 11, 1978 (Maldives)
8. President Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo: August 3, 1979 (Equatorial Guinea)
9. President Jose Eduardo dos Santos: September 10, 1979 (Angola)
10. President Robert Mugabe: March 4, 1980 (Zimbabwe)
11. President Hosni Mubarak: October 14, 1981 (Egypt)
12. President Paul Biya: November 6, 1982 (Cameroon)
13. President Nursultan Nazarbayev: March 22, 1984 (Kazakhstan)
14. President Lansana Conte: April 3, 1984 (Guinea)
15. Prime Minister Samdech Hun Sen: 1985 (Cambodia)
16. President Yoweri Museveni: January 29, 1986 (Uganda)
17. King Mswati III: April 25, 1986 (Swaziland)
18. President Blaise Compaore: October 15, 1987 (Burkina Faso)
19. President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali: November 7, 1987 (Tunisia)
20. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei: June 4, 1989 (Iran)
21. President Omar Hassan Ahmad al-Bashir: June 30, 1989 (Sudan)
22. President Islam Karimov: March 24, 1990 (Uzbekistan)
23. President Idriss Deby: December 2, 1990 (Chad)
24. Prime MInister Meles Zenawi: May 28, 1991 (Ethiopia)
25. President Isaias Afewerki: May 29, 1991 (Eritrea)
Please have a look at #45 Eternal Leaders Part 2 - Mobutu for an analysis of the leadership of former Republic of Zaire President Mobutu Sese Seko
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