Ethiopia has had a busy year so far and it's starting to shape up to be a rough one. After invading Somalia back in July 2006 in order to crush the Islamic insurgency, the Ethiopian troops swiftly proceeded to defeat the enemy and reach Mogadishu by the end of December. Victory was clear and it was time to leave and let the African Union (AU) or the United Nations send the necessary peace keepers. But this did not happen. Instead, the AU did not make good on its pledge to send 8,000 troops (only 1,200 have been deployed), leaving the much reviled Ethiopians to face an increasingly resurgent enemy that can bank on local support when it comes to opposing what many Somalis see as invading Ethiopian forces.
While contending with the troubles in Somalia, tension with another neighbor is starting to flare up. Ethiopia has consistently accused the Eritrean government of supporting and sponsoring various terrorist groups and elements such as Al-Qaeda backed Al-Shabat, operating in Somalia. Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi said recently that one of the main goals was to defeat Eritrean-backed groups in order to "make it difficult for Eritrea to take the option it has taken thusfar - destabilizing through sending elements to Ethiopia and the horn." He said putting Eritrea's accomplices "out of the game" will leave Eritrea with one option: aggressing Ethiopia on its border - a step deemed unlikely, given the result of the 2000 border war with Ethiopia and the likely backlash from the international community (perhaps most importantly from China).
Eritrea, on it's part, released eight Ethiopian citizens who were kidnapped in the northern Afar region in March. Five Europeans had also been kidnapped, but were released 12 days after their capture. Despite this gesture of apparent goodwill, it appears most east African states support Ethiopia and the transitional government of Somalia, while Eritrea openly supports the Islamists. This, in part, has led to Eritrea leaving the Intergovernmental Authority for Development (IGAD), signaling increased instability in the region. Eritrea released a document explaining their decision to suspend their membership of IGAD, accusing Ethiopia and the U.S. of intentionally causing havoc in the Horn of Africa in order to restore U.S. dominance in the region.
Besides the escalating conflict in Somalia that is starting to entrap the Ethiopians and has caused a massive refugee problem, Ethiopia was rudely awakened by a massive shooting rampage in Abole, a small town about 120km (75 miles) from the regional capital, Jijiga, in the Somali (not to be confused with the country, Somalia) region. Gunmen from the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF) killed at least 74 people in an attack on an exploratory drilling site run by a subsidiary of the Chinese government-owned giant oil company, Sinopec. Sixty-five of the dead were Ethiopians and nine were Chinese oil workers. Seven Chinese were also taken captive. Ethiopia has launched a rescue operation to try and secure the release of the Chinese, accusing Eritrea of backing the ONLF in the process. The safety of Chinese interests in Ethiopia is crucial for the African nation, since China is Ethiopia's largest trading partner, with trade worth $450 million in 2006.
China is sure to learn lessons from this attack as well, as the killing of 9 Chinese and the abduction of 7 others comes on the backdrop of 16 Chinese oil workers being kidnapped in Nigeria and a Chinese engineer being killed and another injured in Kenya this year alone. This poses a major dilemma for China, that swears on her policy of non-interference. Until the recent murders and kidnappings of Chinese civilians, this policy has worked very much in China's favor, allowing it to gain access to resources in far flung regions where unsavory types run the show. But once the Chinese themselves become targets, the feasibility of such a policy is brought into question. Perhaps the recent stunning discovery of 2.2 billion barrels of oil in Bohai Bay (northeastern China) will temporarily quench China's thirst for foreign oil and gas, though this is highly unlikely.
While contending with the troubles in Somalia, tension with another neighbor is starting to flare up. Ethiopia has consistently accused the Eritrean government of supporting and sponsoring various terrorist groups and elements such as Al-Qaeda backed Al-Shabat, operating in Somalia. Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi said recently that one of the main goals was to defeat Eritrean-backed groups in order to "make it difficult for Eritrea to take the option it has taken thusfar - destabilizing through sending elements to Ethiopia and the horn." He said putting Eritrea's accomplices "out of the game" will leave Eritrea with one option: aggressing Ethiopia on its border - a step deemed unlikely, given the result of the 2000 border war with Ethiopia and the likely backlash from the international community (perhaps most importantly from China).
Eritrea, on it's part, released eight Ethiopian citizens who were kidnapped in the northern Afar region in March. Five Europeans had also been kidnapped, but were released 12 days after their capture. Despite this gesture of apparent goodwill, it appears most east African states support Ethiopia and the transitional government of Somalia, while Eritrea openly supports the Islamists. This, in part, has led to Eritrea leaving the Intergovernmental Authority for Development (IGAD), signaling increased instability in the region. Eritrea released a document explaining their decision to suspend their membership of IGAD, accusing Ethiopia and the U.S. of intentionally causing havoc in the Horn of Africa in order to restore U.S. dominance in the region.
Besides the escalating conflict in Somalia that is starting to entrap the Ethiopians and has caused a massive refugee problem, Ethiopia was rudely awakened by a massive shooting rampage in Abole, a small town about 120km (75 miles) from the regional capital, Jijiga, in the Somali (not to be confused with the country, Somalia) region. Gunmen from the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF) killed at least 74 people in an attack on an exploratory drilling site run by a subsidiary of the Chinese government-owned giant oil company, Sinopec. Sixty-five of the dead were Ethiopians and nine were Chinese oil workers. Seven Chinese were also taken captive. Ethiopia has launched a rescue operation to try and secure the release of the Chinese, accusing Eritrea of backing the ONLF in the process. The safety of Chinese interests in Ethiopia is crucial for the African nation, since China is Ethiopia's largest trading partner, with trade worth $450 million in 2006.
China is sure to learn lessons from this attack as well, as the killing of 9 Chinese and the abduction of 7 others comes on the backdrop of 16 Chinese oil workers being kidnapped in Nigeria and a Chinese engineer being killed and another injured in Kenya this year alone. This poses a major dilemma for China, that swears on her policy of non-interference. Until the recent murders and kidnappings of Chinese civilians, this policy has worked very much in China's favor, allowing it to gain access to resources in far flung regions where unsavory types run the show. But once the Chinese themselves become targets, the feasibility of such a policy is brought into question. Perhaps the recent stunning discovery of 2.2 billion barrels of oil in Bohai Bay (northeastern China) will temporarily quench China's thirst for foreign oil and gas, though this is highly unlikely.
No comments:
Post a Comment