With the death of Turkmen "President-for-life," Saparmurat Niyazov, last December, hope emerged that maybe Turkmenistan would be able to finally get a taste of Democracy. The election as new President last Sunday of heir-apparent, Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov - who won with the surreal number of 89.23% of the votes in a matter of only four hours of voting, with a 95% turnout according to the Central Election Commission - has put a quick damper on such hopes. On a more positive note (for Turkmenistan, that is), the continuation of Niyazov's legacy will mean that Turkmenistan will likely become neither a Russian nor a European proxy state.
There was talk that the death of Niyazov provides a golden opportunity for the European Union to lessen its dependency on Russian gas, while also allowing for Russia to regain some of its lost Cold War influence in the hermit state. With Turkmenistan being home to the fifth-largest natural gas reserves in the world (proven reserves of 3 Trillion Cubic Meters) and substantial oil reserves as well (Turkmenistan has proven oil reserves of 546m barrels, estimated reserves of more than 2 bn barrels, and large areas that are yet to be explored), the Central Asian nation is of extreme interest particularly to the EU. It could serve as the perfect partner in the realization of an energy corridor from Central Asia to Europe.
There are, however, doubts about Turkmenistan's oil and gas reserves, or at least the potential to make use it. Former vice Prime Minister and head of the Central Bank of Turkmenistan, Khudaiberdy Orazov, noted that "Everyone had to make do with information from Niyazov about Turkmenistan's gas reserves, which were said to be 22 trillion or even 44 trillion cubic meters. But in reality the only gas field in Turkmenistan was opened under the USSR and has been being exploited ever since...It is completely possible that Turkmenistan has a lot of gas. But first it has to be found, a gas field has to be opened, and extraction has to begin. And no one has done that for 15 years, and in the meantime the Geology Ministry has been disbanded and many specialists have left for Russia or let the profession lapse."
If we are to assume that the country is capable of becoming a major player in the world's energy market, recent signs provide no clue as to who will benefit most. Turkmenistan is scheduled to continue providing Gazprom with 50 billion cubic meters of gas a year at below-market prices through the old Soviet-era pipeline and, starting from 2009, the Chinese are to receive 30 billion cubic meters of a gas a year. On the political front, the current festivities in the Turkmen capital, Ashgabat, don't provide any hints either, as they are attended by leaders and senior diplomats from a wide range of countries, including European officials, Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Fradkov, US Assistant Secretary of State Richard Boucher, a vice-chairman of China's parliament, Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan, the leaders of Ukraine and Georgia, and even Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
Turkmenbashi lives on for now, meaning little change within the country and no foreseeable near term impact on the energy and geopolitical chess boards. However, in the hopeful words of an unnamed Western Diplomat in Ashgabat who defended the policy of engagement, "You can take an obese person and tell them that they need to lose weight. Until you see the pounds coming off there's so proof they've absorbed the message...but a crash diet is bad, because you're looking for sustainable change." In other words, the West is choosing to grant Berdymukhamedov and co. the benefit of the doubt for now, allowing for time to implement the necessary changes. Or if you look at it another way, they are hoping to befriend the new leader so as not to alienate the gas-rich nation and increase their own chances of striking some juicy deals.
See also Post #5 Turkmenistan up for Grabs
There was talk that the death of Niyazov provides a golden opportunity for the European Union to lessen its dependency on Russian gas, while also allowing for Russia to regain some of its lost Cold War influence in the hermit state. With Turkmenistan being home to the fifth-largest natural gas reserves in the world (proven reserves of 3 Trillion Cubic Meters) and substantial oil reserves as well (Turkmenistan has proven oil reserves of 546m barrels, estimated reserves of more than 2 bn barrels, and large areas that are yet to be explored), the Central Asian nation is of extreme interest particularly to the EU. It could serve as the perfect partner in the realization of an energy corridor from Central Asia to Europe.
There are, however, doubts about Turkmenistan's oil and gas reserves, or at least the potential to make use it. Former vice Prime Minister and head of the Central Bank of Turkmenistan, Khudaiberdy Orazov, noted that "Everyone had to make do with information from Niyazov about Turkmenistan's gas reserves, which were said to be 22 trillion or even 44 trillion cubic meters. But in reality the only gas field in Turkmenistan was opened under the USSR and has been being exploited ever since...It is completely possible that Turkmenistan has a lot of gas. But first it has to be found, a gas field has to be opened, and extraction has to begin. And no one has done that for 15 years, and in the meantime the Geology Ministry has been disbanded and many specialists have left for Russia or let the profession lapse."
If we are to assume that the country is capable of becoming a major player in the world's energy market, recent signs provide no clue as to who will benefit most. Turkmenistan is scheduled to continue providing Gazprom with 50 billion cubic meters of gas a year at below-market prices through the old Soviet-era pipeline and, starting from 2009, the Chinese are to receive 30 billion cubic meters of a gas a year. On the political front, the current festivities in the Turkmen capital, Ashgabat, don't provide any hints either, as they are attended by leaders and senior diplomats from a wide range of countries, including European officials, Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Fradkov, US Assistant Secretary of State Richard Boucher, a vice-chairman of China's parliament, Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan, the leaders of Ukraine and Georgia, and even Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
Turkmenbashi lives on for now, meaning little change within the country and no foreseeable near term impact on the energy and geopolitical chess boards. However, in the hopeful words of an unnamed Western Diplomat in Ashgabat who defended the policy of engagement, "You can take an obese person and tell them that they need to lose weight. Until you see the pounds coming off there's so proof they've absorbed the message...but a crash diet is bad, because you're looking for sustainable change." In other words, the West is choosing to grant Berdymukhamedov and co. the benefit of the doubt for now, allowing for time to implement the necessary changes. Or if you look at it another way, they are hoping to befriend the new leader so as not to alienate the gas-rich nation and increase their own chances of striking some juicy deals.
See also Post #5 Turkmenistan up for Grabs
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