The latest news in the conflict in Somalia is that Somali government troops and Ethiopian forces have entered Mogadishu without firing a shot. What's more, interim government Prime Minister Mohamed Ali Gedi was allegedly welcomed to the town of Afgoye on the outskirts of Mogadishu by dozens of clan leaders from the capital. I presume Mr. Gedi has never before felt this powerful. He has only the brilliance of Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi to thank.
Zenawi said from the start that the aim was to come in with full force, inflict severe damage, if not total defeat on the Islamist fighters, strengthen Gedi and his government, help build an environment conducive for peace, and get out of there as soon as possible. So far Zenawi has been exceptionally effective and appears to be keeping all his promises. Zenawi's latest pledge: "We are discussing what we need to do to make sure Mogadishu does not descend into chaos. We will not let Mogadishu burn."
The Islamists, meanwhile, are threatening an all out "holy war" against Ethiopia with the help of a possibly large number of foreign Mujahideen. According to Islamic leader Hassan Dahir Aweys, the current retreat to the south is only for tactical reasons. This could signal serious conflict and bloodshed in a few days, but it could also be merely a last ditch effort to save face by bluffing. If the latter is the case, then we should logically presume that brilliance will overcome bluff without all too much trouble.
Once the definitive outcome of the direct conflict is known, it will be time to deal with a possibly much more challenging problem: installing an effective government capable of running the entire nation from the capital of Mogadishu.
Zenawi said from the start that the aim was to come in with full force, inflict severe damage, if not total defeat on the Islamist fighters, strengthen Gedi and his government, help build an environment conducive for peace, and get out of there as soon as possible. So far Zenawi has been exceptionally effective and appears to be keeping all his promises. Zenawi's latest pledge: "We are discussing what we need to do to make sure Mogadishu does not descend into chaos. We will not let Mogadishu burn."
The Islamists, meanwhile, are threatening an all out "holy war" against Ethiopia with the help of a possibly large number of foreign Mujahideen. According to Islamic leader Hassan Dahir Aweys, the current retreat to the south is only for tactical reasons. This could signal serious conflict and bloodshed in a few days, but it could also be merely a last ditch effort to save face by bluffing. If the latter is the case, then we should logically presume that brilliance will overcome bluff without all too much trouble.
Once the definitive outcome of the direct conflict is known, it will be time to deal with a possibly much more challenging problem: installing an effective government capable of running the entire nation from the capital of Mogadishu.
2 comments:
the struggles between christian Ethiopian in the midst of an Islamic Ocean is more than a thousand years old. Religion has always been used as an instrument of political opportunity. The only difference now is that political entities such as states are constrained more constrained than the guerrilla groups that fight with or against them...
You make a great point. All I can say is that, despite the many flaws inherent in states, I hope responsible political entities will always prevail over guerilla groups.
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