Sudan, Africa's largest country, is best known for the crisis (others would call it genocide) in Darfur. But there is another story to Sudan as well. A much more positive one. Sudan happens to be one of Africa's fastest growing economies and, ironically, one of the more stable as of late. What's more, Sudan is currently also one of the world's fastest growing economies.
Sudan's President Omar Al-Bashir announced recently that the country's economic growth rate reached 8% in 2006, adding that the growth rate is expected to increase to between 9-13% in the next year. In fact, according to IMF figures, real GDP growth has reported an average of 6.7% over the past seven years: 8.4% in 2000, 6.2% in 2001, 6.4% in 2002, 4.9% in 2003, 5.2% in 2004, 7.9% in 2005 and 8% in 2006. Other sources put the GDP figure even higher at an average annual growth rate of slightly more than 7% over the past seven years. GDP in 2005 stood at US$ 6,747,748, compared to a mere US$4,950 in 1980. This is remarkable given the grave situation in Darfur and the economic blockade imposed by a large number of nations, as well as the long North-South Civil War that ended with the official signing by both sides of the Nairobi Comprehensive Peace Agreement on 9 January 2005, granting Southern Sudan autonomy for six years, to be followed by a referendum about independence.
Not surprisingly, two major factors in the growth equation are China and oil. Oil revenues have become a major part of GDP, contributing to 49% of the total GDP in 2004, compared to 5.9% in 1999. China imported 81% of Sudan's entire oil exports to the world, while oil accounted for 98.8% of Sudan's exports to China. Of Sudan's total exports to the world in 2003, 40.9% went to China. China is indeed by far Sudan's most valuable trading partner, as, according to the OECD, Sudan's main partners 2004 were China (64.3%), Japan (13.8%) and Saudi Arabia (3.7%). In terms of Sudan's importance for China's economy, Sudanese oil accounted for no more than 5.5% of China's total imports of oil in 2004. Sudanese activist Ali Askouri has gone so far as to proclaim Sudan "The first country to become a Chinese colony."
Another interesting fact that is very much worth noting is that Arab investments in Sudan surged by more than 15 times from US$657 million in 2004 to US$2,341 in 2005. Despite all this, however, we should hope that the crisis in Darfur is not permitted to fade any more into obscurity than it already is. If the figures provided by the United Nations are correct, more than 200,000 people have been killed and two million displaced in the fighting. This should not be worth an economic boom. Khartoum says only 9,000 people have died, but this is not taken seriously by many. In any case, China, for one, does not seem inclined to budge even one inch from their principle of non-interference in the affairs of other countries (a policy that was established more than 50 years ago by then foreign minister Zhou Enlai). Without China, little can be done in Darfur. Without China, little economic growth would be witnessed in Sudan. China reigns supreme.
Sudan's President Omar Al-Bashir announced recently that the country's economic growth rate reached 8% in 2006, adding that the growth rate is expected to increase to between 9-13% in the next year. In fact, according to IMF figures, real GDP growth has reported an average of 6.7% over the past seven years: 8.4% in 2000, 6.2% in 2001, 6.4% in 2002, 4.9% in 2003, 5.2% in 2004, 7.9% in 2005 and 8% in 2006. Other sources put the GDP figure even higher at an average annual growth rate of slightly more than 7% over the past seven years. GDP in 2005 stood at US$ 6,747,748, compared to a mere US$4,950 in 1980. This is remarkable given the grave situation in Darfur and the economic blockade imposed by a large number of nations, as well as the long North-South Civil War that ended with the official signing by both sides of the Nairobi Comprehensive Peace Agreement on 9 January 2005, granting Southern Sudan autonomy for six years, to be followed by a referendum about independence.
Not surprisingly, two major factors in the growth equation are China and oil. Oil revenues have become a major part of GDP, contributing to 49% of the total GDP in 2004, compared to 5.9% in 1999. China imported 81% of Sudan's entire oil exports to the world, while oil accounted for 98.8% of Sudan's exports to China. Of Sudan's total exports to the world in 2003, 40.9% went to China. China is indeed by far Sudan's most valuable trading partner, as, according to the OECD, Sudan's main partners 2004 were China (64.3%), Japan (13.8%) and Saudi Arabia (3.7%). In terms of Sudan's importance for China's economy, Sudanese oil accounted for no more than 5.5% of China's total imports of oil in 2004. Sudanese activist Ali Askouri has gone so far as to proclaim Sudan "The first country to become a Chinese colony."
Another interesting fact that is very much worth noting is that Arab investments in Sudan surged by more than 15 times from US$657 million in 2004 to US$2,341 in 2005. Despite all this, however, we should hope that the crisis in Darfur is not permitted to fade any more into obscurity than it already is. If the figures provided by the United Nations are correct, more than 200,000 people have been killed and two million displaced in the fighting. This should not be worth an economic boom. Khartoum says only 9,000 people have died, but this is not taken seriously by many. In any case, China, for one, does not seem inclined to budge even one inch from their principle of non-interference in the affairs of other countries (a policy that was established more than 50 years ago by then foreign minister Zhou Enlai). Without China, little can be done in Darfur. Without China, little economic growth would be witnessed in Sudan. China reigns supreme.
2 comments:
This is an interesting point of view - it illuminates a country from a direction to which one is not often exposed by the media.
However, I wonder whether this 'non genocidal face' is not exactly the same face as the 'genocidal one'.
Increase in GDP does not truly reflect the economic situation of a country. It depends how the value is distributed among the people.
Do you know the situation for Sudan? Does this enormous increase end up in only a few pockets or is the living standard of the sudenses really going up?
Coming in late to the conversation...
The previous anonymous poster hit the nail on the head. I was there when this post was made. The wealth is not going to the people as a whole, but rather to a select few. In Khartoum you can now see a brand new LG showroom with plasma screens a few blocks away from the most destitute people ever to walk the face of the planet. The new oil projects and hydroelectric projects are dislocating tens of thousands of people from prime farmland to arid deserts where even the desert melon won't grow. Millions of date palms, one of the primary sources of income for those who are not linked with the oil and hydro are being cut, bulldozed into piles and burned as we speak, along with entire villages which lie in the way of progress and money.
Regular Sudanese seem to hate the Chinese in my experience, viewing them in the same light as the British colonialists who controlled the country until 1956. They are also starting to resent a few of their middle eastern neighbors. Much of that 2 billion in investment from Arab countries is going to finance the construction of the Merowe High Dam at the fourth cataract, which is a very contentious issue in the north at the moment (it will displace around 70,000 people - for a while it looked like the Manasir tribe would engage in open armed rebellion - some are still prepared to do this I believe). Even more disastrous will be the planned dam at the third cataract, a much more densely settled area, and one of the best pieces of agricultural land in all of the Sudan.
The people of Sudan may one day benefit from their rapidly growing economy, but from what I saw and what they told me it hasn't happened yet.
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