The historical Silk Road is probably somewhere around 2000 years old. From its inception, the Silk Road was the coronary artery for the Roman Empire’s hunger for luxury goods from the East, such as silk, jade and gems. This demand was in fact so large that it drained hefty sums of gold out of Rome, contributing to the bankruptcy of the Roman economy and eventually the downfall of the empire itself.
The heavy trading along the Silk Road fueled an intense cultural and economic boom. Although over time the silk road would disappear (and reappear only to disappear once more) due to the ever changing geo-political and economic landscape, today we are seeing a revival of the silk road, albeit in a different form. According to George Magnus, Senior Economic Advisor to UBS Investment Bank, a new silk road has emerged through the trade of hydrocarbons, petrodollars and consumer goods.
At the heart of this petrodollar economic system lies China; a net consumer of half of the world’s oil. The capital flows along the road are immense and by no means constitute a one way flow towards the dollar surplus oil economies of the Middle East. These very intense petrodollar fueled trade relationships are at the core of the rebirth of a new silk road. In fact, the new Silk Road is nothing more than a catch phrase for the growing and intensifying economic chains between the Middle East and Asia.
In this emerging trade paradigm, Islamic finance is becoming an increasingly important facet of the new Silk Road. Western and Asian companies, as well as governments, are increasingly using Islamic bonds (Sukuk) to tap the deep well of petrodollars in the Middle East. China also seems to be soaking up ever larger amounts of Islamic finance and investment products. It is a convenient way to recycle the petrodollars of the Middle East and ease some of the massive U.S. trade imbalance. Equally important is that China’s large public works is a good match for the requirements of Islamic asset backed financing products.
The historical link is that the USA is starting to find itself in a similar position to the ailing Roman Empire of ancient times. I will mention a number of factors that coincide: slow decline of the American economy as the primal economy (increased economic multi-polarity), high and increasing debt per capita, currency devaluation, addiction to foreign resources and consumer goods. There are also many political similarities: poor leadership on key issues, an over stretched military, new types of enemies, migrant problems, internal political division and polarized religious factions vying for power. In fact, both Rome and the United States attempted to “liberate” Mesopotamia and secure it from Iranian (then Parthian) influence: it was short lived and costly.
Although you could easily write a book about all the similarities between ancient Rome and the United States, one thing is certain; the global economic paradigmatic shift is forcing the old Pax Americana into a slow retreat. And yes indeed, there is a new silk road emerging, based on petrodollars, black gold, and Asian consumer goods. Perhaps it is too simple to blame it all on economics and politics, but I do believe Clinton got it right when he said “It’s the economy, stupid!”
The heavy trading along the Silk Road fueled an intense cultural and economic boom. Although over time the silk road would disappear (and reappear only to disappear once more) due to the ever changing geo-political and economic landscape, today we are seeing a revival of the silk road, albeit in a different form. According to George Magnus, Senior Economic Advisor to UBS Investment Bank, a new silk road has emerged through the trade of hydrocarbons, petrodollars and consumer goods.
At the heart of this petrodollar economic system lies China; a net consumer of half of the world’s oil. The capital flows along the road are immense and by no means constitute a one way flow towards the dollar surplus oil economies of the Middle East. These very intense petrodollar fueled trade relationships are at the core of the rebirth of a new silk road. In fact, the new Silk Road is nothing more than a catch phrase for the growing and intensifying economic chains between the Middle East and Asia.
In this emerging trade paradigm, Islamic finance is becoming an increasingly important facet of the new Silk Road. Western and Asian companies, as well as governments, are increasingly using Islamic bonds (Sukuk) to tap the deep well of petrodollars in the Middle East. China also seems to be soaking up ever larger amounts of Islamic finance and investment products. It is a convenient way to recycle the petrodollars of the Middle East and ease some of the massive U.S. trade imbalance. Equally important is that China’s large public works is a good match for the requirements of Islamic asset backed financing products.
The historical link is that the USA is starting to find itself in a similar position to the ailing Roman Empire of ancient times. I will mention a number of factors that coincide: slow decline of the American economy as the primal economy (increased economic multi-polarity), high and increasing debt per capita, currency devaluation, addiction to foreign resources and consumer goods. There are also many political similarities: poor leadership on key issues, an over stretched military, new types of enemies, migrant problems, internal political division and polarized religious factions vying for power. In fact, both Rome and the United States attempted to “liberate” Mesopotamia and secure it from Iranian (then Parthian) influence: it was short lived and costly.
Although you could easily write a book about all the similarities between ancient Rome and the United States, one thing is certain; the global economic paradigmatic shift is forcing the old Pax Americana into a slow retreat. And yes indeed, there is a new silk road emerging, based on petrodollars, black gold, and Asian consumer goods. Perhaps it is too simple to blame it all on economics and politics, but I do believe Clinton got it right when he said “It’s the economy, stupid!”
38 comments:
Sir-
Allthough your analysis may come as a shock if not disbelief to many "westerners" most of the points stated are broadly shared among intellectuals in the middle east. The "rome" comparison was very interesting and should serve to whomever reads it as a reminder to have more respect for history.
allthough i am trained as a micro-economist and do not agree to all of the analysis. I thoroughly enjoy reading your posts. please continue the good work
Its always interesting to read how historical events can be parelled to events today and in the future.
I am no expert on economics, but i have read my history and find it a compelling story
I'm not sure what you mean by 'China; a net consumer of half of the world’s oil' when China consumes 6.5 million bbl/day (2005) of the global 82.6 million bbl/day (2005) (CIA factbook - https://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/rankorder/2174rank.html)
That's ~7.87%.
I would like to see more sources for some of your comments.
A Short History of Progress by Ronald Wright explores why Rome collapsed and how not just the US (although the most influential player) but the globe is heading for a similar collapse. Rome had a wide but limited influence which caused a ripple of change to be felt with the fall of Rome. The global ripple will be much larger.
Sorry link above doesn't show up completely in the post: CIA Fact Book Link
Why don't our leaders simply pick up a history book and read about the history of the Roman Empire.
Can you say, "Hubris"?
Well, the major difference between the U.S. and Rome is that the U.S. is a lot more isolated geographically than Rome was.
Interesting attempt to use parallels in order to point to "common conclusions" - i.e., the U.S.A. "empire" going down.
There are important, if not crucial, differences.
One is the fact that today's nations are extremely networked. Yes, the U.S. administration has some issues - but there is far more making today's nations than just administrations.
Secondly, today's international networks do create stability. If nothing else, we will all go down, together, due to climate change, for example.
Thirdly, the U.S. still dominates technologically, and culturally, a huge part of this world. The U.S.A. is a madly powerful powerhouse quite unlike the Roman Empire.
Fourthly, the U.S.A. has a lot of reserves. Take the gas consumption, for example: Housing is comparatively cheap over there, and with some effort, the huge commutes and distances will shrink to bicycle-distances within 12 years for 60 percent of their population. If the Americans would want to. They do have the potential. All they have to do is put it on the road.
Tisk, Tisk, Tisk, I'm not compelled by this story - it is partially true. It would be great to see the USA outlasting the roman empire. Rome by todays standards is still a marvelled civilization for lasting as long as it had did. However, the demise of Rome was much more than just plain ecomomics. Rome was missing the key of what positively expands economist belief of the PPF curve - that missing piece is called "technology." Western-civilization historians and economist can agree in one thing about ROME. Rome practically was just too big for itself. Rome had a marvelous infrastructure (accessible roads from one place to another). However, Rome's great infrastructure was not technologically advanced enough for its own cilvilization to get up to date information and intelligence.
Could you just imagine what life must have been like in Rome, when its polictians received news that barbarians have taken over certain parts of the roman empire. However, the updated news which they have just received was actuallly a month old. It was this type of technology which Rome had to be content. Rome did not have wired telegraphs, telephones, or satellites. For Rome to exist as long as it did, without electricity, was truly a magificient triumph for mankind's history.
Today the world is in touch with technology which rome never had nor could have ever dreamed. Rome was a civilization driven via slavery economics and it shames me when certain economist makes claims that slavery was more profitable than wage workers. Slavery has its oppurtunity cost and that cost would be "technology." Could things have been different if they had abolished slavery? The answer would definitely be yes.
I highly doubt the US will fall like Rome. The world is much smaller now than it was thousands of years ago, thanks in part to technolgy. War seems imminent but world domination by one country is nearly impossible; Thanks to human ingenuity, man had inadvertenly crated an unusual peace maker known as a nuclear weapon.
If anything I see the world quit possibly falling into Adams Smith beliefs where every country will provide goods and serviced to the best of the ability to other countries who see it fit. Although the United States is highly dependent on other countries goods and services (outsourcing), perhaps the United States will continue producing great technologies and keep its undergradute and graduate educational system the best the world will ever see.
By the way,
I'm a product of outsourcing and I'm a happy american willing to learn new things.
PS
The person who wrote this article, "the new silk road," needs to join 21st century. I pray to god this person isn't teaching. He reminds me of my micro-economic proffessor back in college. The world should think positive and always learn from history. "Without learning from history WE will always be doomed to repeat it."(my second grade teacher, Sister Angela)
Rome is just too small compared to US.
Legit Get Paid To surf
Agloco
Some interesting comments here.
Just wanted to say though, to "stan" - the notion that the Roman Empire lacked the technology to sustain its empire is somewhat fallacious, and ignores the obvious paralells between the endemic levels of corruption in the Roman system of government and the American government today. Also - the Roman empire, with the exception of electronics and electricity, was almost as technologically advanced as any sizeable developed nation today - in terms of their advantage over everyone else.
The Roman Military machine was incredibly efficient (the "giant crossbow" devices you see in Ridley Scott's "Gladiator" are in fact very real, and were as powerful as a modern day gun - and a batallion of these could fire several dozen rounds a minute), and contrary to your claim of months to communicate, thanks to the road system, they were able to receive messages from places as far away as Egypt in a matter of a week or less. Granted, the far reaches of the empire took longer, but that was the whole underpinning success of the Roman empire - technology. Also - their currency - which was, technologically speaking, the lynchpin of their empire.
There is a term called "Crossing the Rubicon". If you aren't already aware of it, you should investigate its origin, and the circumstances of endemic corruption in the Republic that lead to that unfortunate occurrence. Then it becomes easy, to compare these things to the present day American Republic - for some might argue that when the American Republic is now bought and paid for by big oil, and their leaders have dispensed with the constitution and habeas corpus, and more importantly Posse Commitatus (the modern equivalent of crossing the Rubicon), the paralells are not merely subtle, they are overwhelming.
As for Adam Smith's invisible hand fixing it all - this argument is extremely irritating. My answer to that statement is "HOW". You explain it, rather than put your faith in some ridiculous notion that "The Market" is an autonomous creature that we can't control. We ARE the market.
(if you listen -very- carefully, you can hear the invisible hand of the market stroking its invisible penis).
Although this all sounds interesting, the writer is not taking into consideration we have the assets of democracy, mass communication which leads to becoming informed, and people who strive for a greater good through ingenuity and innovation. We became a great nation without sharing parallels to Rome. Why should we believe parallels will lead to our demise.
Asterisc
Another clueless American-basher.
Its kind of interesting as well that if you look at world history you see a progressive westward march in the geographic location of the worlds dominant power. Mesopotamia, then Egypt, then Greece, and so forth. Following that logic its only natural that Asia will hold the next superpower. I have to laugh at the person who called the largest land empire the world has ever seen, too small. LOL
Many of these comments prove the sad reality that the real lesson of history is that no one ever learns the lessons of history.
It is arrogant in the extreme to assume that superficial differences somehow make a society immune to the same mistakes of another society.
Owning an iPod doesn't mean that your society is saved.
The commenter who suggests the difference between the assets of democraccy, mass communication is seemingly ignorant of a handful of factors.
First of all, the US is not really a pure Democracy, it's a Republic. This alone nullifies the ignorant statement "We became a great nation without sharing paralells to Rome". In fact the US' -ultimate - paralell to Rome was in being a Republic. Do you think it coincidence that the Capitol building shares echoes of Roman Architecture? Ultimately, it falls on the people to maintain a Republic.
Furthermore, the notion that the American people have access to mass communication that keeps them informed is hilarious. Perhaps Americans think this, but anyone who has spent more than thirty seconds outside of the USA, and is exposed to international "mass communication" realises that the American people are not stupid, but their media is not telling them anything of substance.
The corporate influence on the media in the US (whether direct or indirect) is now too great for any real place in the US experiment for the media as the fourth estate. It is merely entertainment at best, propaganda at worst. This is demonstrated by the example of many of the now accepted, -facts- about the adventure in Iraq (no WMD, false intelligence, the Downing Street Memos) are still considered questionable by certain sectors of the US media, and indeed, significant numbers of the American public. The shame is that the rest of the world knew these things -before- the war took place, while in the USA, there was not a shred of reporting on these facts.
And finally to the person who claims the author's editorial is "American bashing"? Do you deny that the value of the US dollar has declined sharply, almost to the point of crisis in recent times? Do you deny the US' national deficit - now at around 8.5 trillion dollars (more than the US could -ever- pay back according to some analysts). Are you aware that very soon, as in March last year, the US will have to decide whether to raise its 'debt cieling' to finance its daily activities - or be faced with certain shutdown of numerous government services? Do you deny the increasing inability for the US to wield its traditionally powerful influence in the world - due to a global rejection of its moral hypocrisy - espousing peace while practicing war? All these things paralell similar events in the Roman experiment, and all those things ultimately lead to the collapse of the Roman empire.
The American people need to see the writing on the wall. The fact is they DID have the best Republic since Rome. But they are sleeping soundly as it's being dismantled in much the same fashion as that original Republic. America today is a dictatorship in all but name - one only has to look at the present actions of the executive branch - apparently in blatant contradiction to not only the will of the majority of the congress, but the people as well.
This, by definition, is dictatorship. Rome, anyone?
"Anonymous said...
Although this all sounds interesting, the writer is not taking into consideration we have the assets of democracy, mass communication which leads to becoming informed, and people who strive for a greater good through ingenuity and innovation. We became a great nation without sharing parallels to Rome. Why should we believe parallels will lead to our demise.
Asterisc"
as if the "other" countries don't have mass communications. and we don't really have "democracy," per se. it's more like capitalism now. as far as i see from having lived in 4 different countries, americans are about half as informed as the people in the other developed nations. did you know Bush never went to a foreign country before becoming the president? How sad is that? I think we've been too comfortable, holding onto the spoils we found in the last 3 decades. Almost every European or East Asian I've met are at least bilingual and their technologies are growing at a much faster pace.
I was talking about this topic with someone just the other day. I am amazed that the majority of Americans still think America will run the world forever. Just like Rome, it was built on solid ideals but corruption and greed are causing those magnificent foundations to break.
Ever look at the tag on your clothes, on your toys, on anything? It says "Made in China". Everything is. It may take China 50 years but they're coming. It's cheaper to outsource production now but all the jobs that America is losing is going to cost big-time in the end.
Have a listen/read to the speech of the Plymouth Oration. Compare America then with America now.
To those harping on technology being a savior, you're missing the point completely. Over the past few decades, technology has increasingly invaded the entertainment market, which is exactly its point - to keep the people limited to iPods and sleaze-on-screen so that their capability to question the actions of the executive never really develops.
Besides, if it were really that, I fail to see how being the most technologically advanced nation in the world hasn't helped Americans fight corruption one bit, and this is where the author draws parallels - the facts of corruption, degrading moral standards and increasing ineptitude of the ones in charge.
If it were about technology and mass information, how come France, Israel and India knew about 9/11 ages before it was mentioned in the American media? How come technology hasn't helped USA from being transformed into a fascist state, what with executive orders usurping every bit of what democracy means?
Bigotry is a natural outcome when one's criticized on the basis of true facts.
Finally, get your hands on a copy of "Crossing the Rubicon"
There are haunting parallels one can draw of Rome and America.
The question should be - is the American people willing to do what needs to be done to return their country to the beacon of what we all aspire to, or will they go silently into the night? I'm watching http://overheardinnewyork.com/ for a change in intellect of the American public.
Reasonably free trade such as that practiced between China and the Roman Empire makes both sides wealthier, it does not drain wealth.
Trade itself increases wealth, it does not destroy it. The reasons for Rome's decline are very different from what you describe. Time to hit those history books again.
There is one key difference between the USA and the Roman Empire - Rome never discovered the miracle of Capitalism and Individual Rights and used it to exponentially increase the standard of living for the entire planet. Not that that is justification for capitalism - the only justification that is needed is that the USA, despite all of its faults, is still the freest country on earth. It won't be anything that you mentioned that will lead to the demise of the USA - what can and may bring it down is the extent to which it strays from the ideals upon which it was founded and gives in to the morass of amoral collectivism that sadly smothers most of our planet.
Anonymous writes ;
"the USA, despite all of its faults, is still the freest country on earth"
What are you smoking?
That is verifiably false. Are you aware of the Bill Of Rights? Are you aware that it's effectively neutered at this stage? Are you aware of the Posse Commitatus Act and the writ of Habeas Corpus? Are you aware that recent legislation has recently effectively nullified these foundation stones of "freedom" in America? Yes, you can be arrested or detained, without charge, without a lawyer, indefinitely, for anything, at any time. If that is "freedom" then I suggest you move to one of the so called repressive regimes your nation seeks to bomb - there is just as much freedom in these countries.
"Rome never discovered the miracle of Capitalism"
What on earth are you talking about? Rome's wealth was directly related to their currency being used all over Asia and Europe. If you're talking about capitalism of the futures-trading and currency exchange variety, you're probably ignoring the very part of Capitalism that may prove the USA's demise. You cannot continue to sustain an economy on "nothing". A significant percentage of America's wealth is generated out of thin air - not primary products or manufactured goods. The only thing preventing the US dollar from collapsing is the fact that Oil - on which the entire planet depends for econimic growth - cannot be purchased using any other currency.
China and the USA's third world labor forces are taking over that mantle. While it's true that today those factories in China are owned by American companies - it is also true that those companies are bringing skills and capital to China and are there at the behest of what is ultimately a Socialist dictatorship. The minute China wants to kick them out, they are welcome to do so. The difference is they will have massive amounts of capital and a skilled labor force to boot. Do you think the average American, accustomed to working for minimum wage, will give it up to work for 50 cents a day?
That's Capitalism - or rather, the perversion of Adam Smith's original ideas that oligarchs today somehow attempt to pass off as "Capitalism". Modern trans-national Feudalism would be a closer description - one must not forget that the original ideals of Capitalism in theory would lead to a perfectly equitable society. The "trickle down" effect has been disproved so many times as to be laughable, unless you default to the right's standard rhetoric of "poor people are lazy" or "third world people are dumb". It's too simplistic and borderline racist.
There MUST be a better way, and the US has proven consistently that theirs leads to death, bloodshed, and inequality.
The reason that the U.S. will not follow the same path as ancient Rome is a very simple one. Democracy. And frankly, as an U.S. citizen, it gets old listening to the rest of the world tell us what a terrible nation we are and how doomed we are. Blow me. We are the most powerful nation on the planet. We got where we are by our own efforts and we'll be fine as long as we don't listen to you assclowns.
it reminds me of my my blog post on Civilization Decay Rate on my website.
I'm not sure how to measure it and i would love to find out how. I do agree that the similarities of Rome and America are eerily similar and yet so bleak.
Thank your for all the great comments and the debate. This article was not about America bashing. It actually meant to serve as a wake up call for Americans to look at the direction of the shifting geopolitical paradigm. Just because there are a lot of similarities (and dissimilarities) with the "old" Rome does not necessarily mean that U.S is doomed per se. However, if it is not careful it could slip into geopolitical, economic and also cultural degeneration.
To respond to the point of Geographical isolation. America is perhaps physically isolated. But that is less important in globalized world. Money, information, people, and also "barbarians" travel much faster than in the old day. So shock cycles are also shorter. America is building the equivalent of Hadrians wall on the border of Mexico. Also in an attempt to keep the "barbarians" out. America forgets that their economy, (just as in the old day) is dependent very much so on those workers.
As a final note I want to stress that this was mostly an article touching on the emergence of a new silk road of petro-dollars economies. This was the core of the story (although the conclusion must have been a bit misleading for some)
There is a basic flaw in this economic "analysis" of the parallels between the economic decline of the Roman Empire and the United States: The Roman currency was based on silver and gold and thus the money was gone for good when traded for consumer goods. Other than the dollar, Roman coins remained valuable even without the existence of the Roman Empire while the value of dollars and dollar bonds depends on the existence of the U.S., meaning the money must come back at some point (as can be seen from the enormous capital inflow into the U.S.). And as a side note: The U.S. might arguably be in its late Republican phase (but still no sign of the Gracchi, of Sulla, of Pompeius, Crassus or Caesar...), the glorious days of the Empire are still awaiting us ... ;-)
Let me respond to that intelligent comment. Indeed the roman economy was based on silver and gold which were minted in to coins. The value of those coins was based on substance of gold within the coins.
However Rome had a huge trade deficit, which put monetary pressure (devaluation) much in the same way as the roman empire. With gold it meant that rome lacked the amount of gold to mint pure gold coins, and debased the value of its coins by mixing it with other metals. This has in fact been confirmed by the fact that gold coins from later era's had less gold in the coins.
This led to a worsening cycle of inflation/devaluation that would have probably resulted in army maintenance, barbarian bribing costs becoming more expensive. Also the cost of imported goods as well as grains (rome imported most of its grain from egypt) rose inherently. Roman coins were eventually superceded by those of higher quality as a measure for trade.
And although today the dollar is still the trading medium. The calls for substituting the dollar with a stronger currency is growing stronger. The evidence is there, just look at the strength of gold, euro and the swiss frank. Those are indicators of how the world views the dollar.
This will all end in crying and ruin.
www.substantialincomes.com
<»>We are the most powerful nation on the planet. We got where we are by our own efforts and we'll be fine as long as we don't listen to you assclowns.<«>
First, I'm pretty sure we did not get here by ourselves. For example, I seem to recall that the French gave us a little help back when we were fighting for sovereingty.
That aside, it's that kind of closed-minded thinking and blind faith in our ability to maintain what power we may still have left by just adhering to the status quo that will be our ultimate downfall.
There are two separate realities. Absolute/Permanent or transient/temporary/relative. That which is absolute is the true reality for it has always been there and is the source for everything, whether we know it or ever experienced it or not. Any other quality/aspect that is not absolute is the other reality. The one which is relative and goes round and round and never progresses/evolve [and eventually will devolve].
Cyclical activities rely on imbalance to exist, like a 2-wheeled cart which, when one wheel is larger than the other, cannot progress forward other than going round and round. Like electrical potential or thermal gradient needing to compare/divide or else it has no power. Like when male and female do not complement, they’ll only differentiate in the end. Evolution is real whereas devolution/malice is not for all humans will die one fine day. Evolution is that which spans between Dust and Godhood and started just after Creation/The Big Bang. To sustain Evolution, Innocence & Wisdom was created next. Without these innate aspects, devolution will reign.
Truth is something complicated made simple and untruth is something simple made complicated. The simple Truth, is unless and until we love our self first, we cannot progress/evolve but merely go round on the kleptomaina bus. When we don’t really love others, because we don’t even know much about our self, the cockraoch route is the only option. Technology on its own, which reflects the moral status of the expressor, will not evolve a human. It only unbalances him to favour a new god and transient gods are always in the making. Technology’s role is to asist in the proof of Truth, not replace it but that cannot happen when you have kleptomanic juveniles running the show. Sustanenace/satisfaction is not the same as desire/consumption. One is within and the other, without. The ONLY aspect common to all true humans is the Truth within and that is absolute love. The sound than doesn’t require percussion. ALL other aspects divide humans.
As a tree matures and climbs higher, so must it’s roots spread to maintain its balance. There is no absolute freedom [but abundance of relative freedoms] when true maturity is absent and true maturity for humans is his Innocence & Wisdom and not the ability to copulate, corrupt or rationalise. When Morality is absent, there is no such thing as democracy. You’ll only have abandonment. Malice is allowed a showing within democracy because that is the test for maturity. Not indulgence and desires for these aspects are to differentiate the chaff from the wheat. Like kleptomania in all its forms and aspects, varying from those who helm governments, “entreprenuerial exploits”, to desire for fashion of any kind. To return to our roots, we need true/absolute maturity and not the allure of artificial maturity of transient power. The freedom to grab and plunder and then calling it deserved effort. Like rising house prices and salaries and goddam the poor natives elsewhere for “The Monetary Exchange”/”StockExchage”, etc, will look after our cheap cost of living. Relative truths depend on the zero-sum effect but since what goes around do really comes around, for in the end, only malice/devolution wins if the Truth within is not called upon. Human lifetime/”achievement” is not the deciding factor for Evolution. Truth is.
History is something about the past that we currently know of. The chasm between reality [the brain] and relative truth [the imaginations spawned by the 3 human minds] is similar to that gap which separates a chimp and a true human. A chimp cannot comprehend arithmetic, let alone mathematics, because it has no true language capability. It’s Nature’s way of alluding to Evolution, not the “superiority” assumed by some dumb humans. And Evolution is not evolution. One encompasses all aspects, including those only perceiveable through the 6th and 7th senses [when and if awakened] whereas evolution is merely the physical aspect defined by the 5-Sense Universe through the 3 human minds. To arrive at Truth’s door [only, not even entering it], we need to be honest with our self first for until then, we have no capability for judging others. Subjugating them or be subjugated through the world of tranient/temporary empowerment, otherwise known as living others’ lives or relative judgement/comparison, yes, for that is what Malice/Distraction do best. Judge your self first and if you succeed, you will not need to judge others or live their lives. That is how humans will unite, which is another word for Love [and not the relative love expressed as sympathy, charity, and other hypocirtical nonsense] and not divide, which is another word for judgement/comparison. Division requires imbalance to exist and 99.99% of humans are unbalanced juveniles, regardless of age and experience and juveniles are those who lack valuation in matters of Truth. Whether we agree, like it, know it, or not.
As a follow-up on my "flaw" post and your interesting answer:
While what you say on the steady downgrading of quality of Roman coinage is true, the basic difference remains: as (Western) Rome ceased to exist or ceased to be a liquid customer all the problems that the sellers had was to find other buyers and they could still keep the gold and silver they accumulated from their former business with the Roman Empire.
Today, it would not be easy for the big sellers (read: China and the Gulf Oil States) to switch to a differrent currency, since they would lose tremendous amounts of their wealth which they hold in dollar bonds and obligations (which would be worth nothing if the dollar fell). So for, say, China and Saudi-Arabia it would be economic suidcide to switch their tradt e.g. to the Euro. Iran, which had all of its dollar assets frozen and cannot trade with the U.S. on the other hand could switch to Euro oil trading without hurting its economy much more than it already did.
Especially the U.S. and China are in a kind of mutual stranglehold: the U.S. can't stop imports from China without killing the dollar and China can't sell its dollar assets without killing its (U.S.) export driven growth ...
And as an afterthought:
The recent rise in the price of Gold and the Euro vs. the Dollar may well reflect a desperate attempt by China and the Gulf States (which are buying a lot of gold) to diversify their reserves. But this can only go so far without causing a worlwide economic meltdown, which I suspect the respective central banks are well aware of.
Good article. Reading some of the comments from the brain washed Americans are hilarious. I am reminded of the line in "Why we Fight". Nowhere is it written that the American Empire goes on forever.
The Anonymous poster above seems to have conflicting thoughts in his head. He seems to want to point out the US economy will be fine but then preceds to show the seeds of the US economy's desctruction. The Arab states, Russia, and China are going to slowly build their gold reserves. China will encourage domestic consumption to fuel it's own economy. China will take the long road. Something American's aren't good at. This is one of those times it helps to have smart Authoritarian leadership. They don't have to respond to the whim of voters. They just have to keep them happy enough not to rebel. The flood of dollars in the world will not save the US economy. Bill Gates and Warren Buffet have pointed out the fall of dollar is guaranteed. The world might not move away all at once but move they will. What will happen in the US as the dollar falls? Will the US population embrace capitalism again?(real capitalism...manufacturing...creating things of real value...not financial speculation in a fiat financed boom) Or will they turn to socialism like France when their empire collapsed. This is where the character thing comes up. American public schools have been bashing capitalism for years. I wouldn't bet on a new renewed faith in Capitalism in the US. The dollar is doomed to fall. 50 percent at least. How will the US respond? The answer to that question is the answer to what happens to the US empire. The poster is correct though. The fiat dollar is America's greatest strength...but it is also America's achilles heel. There is no need for America to change until the dollar collapses but the whole world knows the US has been taking advantage of their favored position in the world. Do Americans really think the rest of the world is going to sit by and let the US export the majority of it's inflation forever?
Conflicting thoughts? Moi? ;-)
I just assume that the Chinese and Arab central banks are rational actors which want to get maximum results from their assests. Dumping every dollar they have in Gold and Euros in a hurry would not work and would obliterate their own economies (which is the difference to Roman times, China just sold its silk to the Arabs and Indians instead and still kept the gold they got of the Romans).
Anyway, is Gold a viable asset in today's world? IMHO absolutely not. It is well suited to an agriculturally based economy, even, in the form of fractional reserve, for early investment-good manufacturing economies. But in a world were growth is mainly generated by services and "virtual" assests like software, entertainment, finances etc., a firmly gold based currency/economy would be an invitation to (constant) value deflation of epic proportions.
If you look at the "history" of money you might notice that the transitions from Gold-based to fractional to fiat more or less takes place in synchronicity with the transition from mostly static agricultural to more dynamic yet investment driven industrial to extremly dynamic post-industrial and - to a great part - consumer driven economies.
And, btw, don't let your misgivings of America stand in the way of rational judgement. And no, I am not an American myself, nor do I wish to be one. Yet I do appreciate that without the "Pax Americana" Europe would be nowhere near the wealth it enjoys today. In fact it might even be a soviet republic in the Eurasian USSR ;-).
Will the American Empire fall some day? Absolutely, but I sure hope not during my lifetime nor during that of my children.
Thus: Be careful with what you wish for.... ;-)
besides the factors listed in this article, another major similarity which served to be rome's weakness and very well could be america's - is exactly what has already been resonated several times in some of the other comments - arrogance - we are the most powerful and the best and rule the world and nothing can happen to us.
You are right the Empire is Falling and the dollar is Inflated now is a paper without any value only backup by US Military and Petroleum from Saudis, when China start to throw most of his massive $1 trillion of dollars in reserves the Mighty Empire would fall
How could a Society like USA is not well aware of the economy of their country
China may have a trillion in cash reserves, but Taiwan has three trillion. People may not realize that there has been a global capital economy for at least five thousand years. Capital accumulation didn't begin with Adam Smith . In 1600 China atill produced seventy percent of the worlds GNP.
cool down
picture video
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